2021 College Basketball Preseason Projections: Conference Standings, Win Totals

2021 College Basketball Preseason Projections: Conference Standings, Win Totals

Our 2021 preseason college basketball projections for all teams, including final standings, season win totals, and conference champion odds.

November 4, 2021 – by Jason Lisk

Johnny Juzang and UCLA will try to build on last year’s Final Four run (Brian Rothmuller/Icon Sportswire)

We have published our official 2021 College Basketball Preseason Ratings. That means we also now have full 2021-22 college basketball projected standings for all teams.

You can find daily updates at our College Basketball Projected Conference Standings page. That page will have projected conference records and overall regular-season records, plus conference regular-season title odds and conference tournament win odds.

All of these projections are data-driven and automated, and they update every morning throughout the season to incorporate the previous day’s game results.

Our 2021-22 College Basketball Projections Data

This post has our preseason predictions for each conference. There’s a lot of info in the individual conference tables below. You’ll find:

Full conference standings projectionsProjected regular-season recordsConference win odds (regular season)Conference tournament win odds

But first, let’s point out a few highlights from our 2021-22 college basketball preseason projected standings.

NOTE: All data in this post is from November 3, 2021. Even during the preseason, these same values on the rest of the site may differ slightly from day to day, as there is some randomness used in the projections.

Projections Highlights: Conference Winner Odds

Here are our projected regular-season winners for the major conferences, along with their win odds:

American: Houston (37%)ACC: Duke (22%)Big 12: Texas (27%)Big East: Villanova (34%)Big Ten: Michigan (24%)Pac-12: UCLA (40%)SEC: Alabama (17%)

Some observations here:

Last year, four of our seven projected regular-season winners actually won the conference, more than you would have expected based on our odds estimates.Three teams are repeating as our preseason favorites to win their respective conferences: Houston and Villanova, who did win their conferences last year, and Duke, who definitely did not.Alabama is the favorite in the SEC, but at 17 percent, it has the shortest odds of any of these projected conference winners.UCLA, the projected Pac-12 favorite, last won the conference regular-season title in 2012-13.Texas, narrowly projected as the favorite ahead of Kansas, last won a share of the conference regular-season title in 2007-08.

Biggest Mid-Major Conference Favorites

Outside the major conferences, eight schools have a 49 percent or better chance of winning their regular-season conference title.

Gonzaga (80% to win West Coast)Colgate (80% to win Patriot)Nicholls State (63% to win Southland)Vermont (59% to win America East)Winthrop (58% to win Big South)South Dakota State (53% to win Summit)Belmont (50% to win Ohio Valley)St. Bonaventure (49% to win Atlantic 10)

Last year, we had only five projected conference champions with at least a 50 percent chance of winning the regular-season title, so there are more strong favorites among the non-power conferences this season. Gonzaga yet again leads the way as the strongest favorite to win its conference, tied with last year’s Patriot League champion, Colgate.

2021-22 College Basketball Projected Standings (Preseason)

For a lot more info on any team, click their name in the associated conference table below to view their season projections page. Once there, be sure to also check out the team Bracketology link at the top of the page.

Other than that, just keep in mind the following two notes:

Scheduled games only. Our preseason win-loss record projections only account for already scheduled games, so they will be missing some early-season tournament games where opponents have yet to be determined.Coronavirus impact on schedules. Team schedules hopefully will not change as frequently as they did last season, but some games will probably be canceled or postponed because of COVID-19. So, some of the win-loss records below are bound to be wrong in terms of number of actual games played. We will not be updating this post in the future; see our college basketball projections page for the latest projections we have.Daily variance. Even before the season starts, the numbers here may differ slightly from those on the college basketball projections page. That isn’t us adjusting numbers behind the scenes; it’s just the result of variance in our season simulations, which re-run daily even in the preseason.

Table Key

CONFERENCE (W/L): Projected conference wins and losses during the regular season.OVERALL (W/L): Projected total wins and losses during the regular season.CONFERENCE ODDS (Reg/Tourn): Odds to win the regular season conference title (Reg), odds to win the conference tournament (Tourn)

2021 ACC Basketball Projected Standings

	Conference		Overall		Conference Odds
Team	W	L	W	L	Reg	Tourn
Duke	13.7	6.3	22.7	8.3	22.0%	19.4%
Florida St	13.1	6.9	20.7	9.3	15.9%	13.9%
N Carolina	12.6	7.4	20.4	9.6	14.0%	13.6%
Louisville	12.6	7.4	20.2	9.8	13.5%	12.8%
VA Tech	12.5	7.5	20.1	9.9	10.6%	10.8%
Virginia	12.0	8.0	19.4	9.6	9.3%	10.6%
Notre Dame	11.4	8.6	17.8	11.2	6.4%	6.2%
NC State	9.2	10.8	16.7	14.3	1.9%	3.0%
GA Tech	9.1	10.9	17.3	13.7	1.9%	2.4%
Clemson	9.1	10.9	16.0	13.0	1.9%	2.8%
Syracuse	9.0	11.0	14.7	14.3	1.3%	2.0%
Miami (FL)	8.1	11.9	14.5	14.5	0.9%	1.5%
Wake Forest	6.7	13.3	14.6	15.4	0.2%	0.6%
Pittsburgh	6.3	13.7	13.1	17.9	0.1%	0.4%
Boston Col	4.6	15.4	10.2	18.8	0.0%	0.1%

Duke is back as the favorite after a disappointing season, in what will be Coach K’s last year in Durham. Florida State, North Carolina, Louisville, and Virginia Tech are the most likely other challengers.

Notre Dame hasn’t had a winning conference record since the 2016-17 season, but it is projected to be above .500 this year.

2021 America East Basketball Projected Standings

	Conference		Overall		Conference Odds
Team	W	L	W	L	Reg	Tourn
Vermont	14.4	3.6	20.6	8.4	58.9%	52.0%
Stony Brook	11.1	6.9	18.4	12.6	14.7%	15.3%
Hartford	10.3	7.7	16.8	14.2	8.5%	9.7%
Albany	9.2	8.8	14.8	16.2	4.6%	5.5%
Maryland BC	8.8	9.2	14.6	16.4	4.1%	5.1%
Mass Lowell	8.7	9.3	15.2	15.8	3.6%	4.5%
N Hampshire	8.3	9.7	12.4	15.6	2.9%	3.9%
NJIT	7.5	10.5	12.2	17.8	1.6%	2.3%
Binghamton	6.8	11.2	12.4	16.6	0.9%	1.4%
Maine	4.9	13.1	10.2	19.8	0.2%	0.3%

Vermont has won or shared the conference regular-season title five straight years and is again the favorite in the America East Conference.

2021 AAC Basketball Projected Standings

	Conference		Overall		Conference Odds
Team	W	L	W	L	Reg	Tourn
Houston	13.8	4.2	23.1	5.9	37.3%	33.0%
Memphis	13.7	4.3	22.6	6.4	33.4%	30.5%
S Methodist	11.6	6.4	21.9	8.1	11.1%	11.9%
Central FL	10.7	7.3	18.1	10.9	6.2%	6.9%
Cincinnati	10.3	7.7	19.9	10.1	5.3%	7.0%
Wichita St	10.1	7.9	18.5	10.5	5.2%	7.4%
Tulsa	8.3	9.7	15.8	13.2	1.2%	2.2%
Temple	6.0	12.0	12.0	17.0	0.2%	0.4%
Tulane	5.8	12.2	12.3	15.7	0.1%	0.4%
S Florida	4.5	13.5	11.1	17.9	0.0%	0.1%
E Carolina	4.1	13.9	10.2	17.8	0.0%	0.1%

Memphis is expected to push Houston in the American Conference.

Last year was a disappointing one for the league, other than Houston’s dominance. Wichita State was the only other conference team to make the NCAA tournament. The Shockers are projected to finish sixth this year.

2021 Atlantic 10 Basketball Projected Standings

	Conference		Overall		Conference Odds
Team	W	L	W	L	Reg	Tourn
St Bonavent	14.6	3.4	22.4	5.6	49.3%	39.0%
Richmond	12.4	5.6	20.5	9.5	16.5%	16.4%
VCU	11.3	6.7	19.3	9.7	9.5%	11.8%
Davidson	11.1	6.9	16.8	10.2	5.5%	7.2%
Rhode Island	10.8	7.2	19.1	10.9	6.2%	6.9%
Dayton	10.4	7.6	17.9	11.1	4.9%	5.7%
U Mass	10.3	7.7	18.2	12.8	3.5%	4.9%
Saint Louis	9.7	8.3	15.9	13.1	3.5%	5.4%
Duquesne	7.6	10.4	13.2	15.8	0.5%	1.1%
Geo Mason	6.3	11.7	12.0	18.0	0.3%	0.5%
St Josephs	6.3	11.7	12.2	16.8	0.2%	0.5%
La Salle	6.0	12.0	12.1	16.9	0.1%	0.3%
Geo Wshgtn	4.7	13.3	9.7	19.3	0.0%	0.1%
Fordham	4.4	13.6	10.1	18.9	0.0%	0.1%

St. Bonaventure surged to the regular-season title a year ago and is the clear favorite to repeat in the Atlantic 10.

2021 Atlantic Sun Basketball Projected Standings

	Conference		Overall		Conference Odds
Team	W	L	W	L	Reg	Tourn
Liberty	11.9	4.1	21.4	7.6	35.4%	32.4%
Jksnville St	10.9	5.1	19.1	9.9	20.1%	20.6%
Fla Gulf Cst	10.0	6.0	18.1	10.9	12.8%	13.2%
E Kentucky	9.9	6.1	13.8	11.2	13.6%	13.2%
Lipscomb	8.6	7.4	14.6	14.4	5.4%	6.1%
Bellarmine	8.6	7.4	12.7	16.3	6.3%	6.5%
Stetson	7.1	8.9	10.4	14.6	2.4%	2.6%
Jacksonville	6.7	9.3	13.3	15.7	1.5%	1.9%
Kennesaw St	6.3	9.7	12.6	17.4	1.0%	1.4%
N Florida	6.3	9.7	11.5	19.5	1.0%	1.3%
N Alabama	5.3	10.7	8.9	16.1	0.4%	0.5%
Central Ark	4.5	11.5	8.5	21.5	0.2%	0.3%

The Atlantic Sun has added three new members for this season, improving the depth at the top of the conference. Eastern Kentucky and Jacksonville State moved from the Ohio Valley Conference, while Central Arkansas moved from the Southland.

The conference now has a Jacksonville State (from Alabama) and Jacksonville (from Florida) so don’t get them confused. Even with the additions, Liberty is still the favorite to win the conference again.

2021 Big 12 Basketball Projected Standings

	Conference		Overall		Conference Odds
Team	W	L	W	L	Reg	Tourn
Texas	12.3	5.7	24.5	7.5	26.8%	25.6%
Kansas	12.1	5.9	21.3	7.7	23.8%	23.6%
Baylor	11.1	6.9	19.9	9.1	15.4%	16.8%
Texas Tech	10.7	7.3	21.6	9.4	11.7%	13.7%
Oklahoma St	10.2	7.8	20.2	10.8	9.2%	0.0%
Oklahoma	9.6	8.4	18.1	10.9	6.6%	9.1%
W Virginia	9.6	8.4	18.5	10.5	5.9%	8.7%
TX Christian	6.2	11.8	14.4	14.6	0.6%	1.7%
Kansas St	4.6	13.4	12.4	17.6	0.1%	0.6%
Iowa State	3.7	14.3	11.8	18.2	0.0%	0.3%

The Big 12 continues to be loaded and deep at the top of the conference, making life difficult for the teams at the bottom of the league. Texas and Kansas are basically co-favorites, just ahead of the defending champion Baylor Bears.

Oklahoma State had its NCAA appeal denied and will be banned from the postseason this year.

2021 Big East Basketball Projected Standings

	Conference		Overall		Conference Odds
Team	W	L	W	L	Reg	Tourn
Villanova	14.1	5.9	21.8	8.2	33.8%	27.1%
Connecticut	12.9	7.1	20.3	8.7	20.8%	18.7%
Seton Hall	12.2	7.8	19.7	10.3	14.6%	14.6%
Xavier	11.7	8.3	19.7	10.3	11.6%	12.6%
St Johns	10.5	9.5	19.4	11.6	6.3%	7.8%
Butler	9.6	10.4	15.8	13.2	4.4%	5.8%
Providence	9.0	11.0	16.4	13.6	2.8%	4.2%
Creighton	8.7	11.3	15.5	13.5	2.6%	3.6%
Marquette	8.6	11.4	15.3	14.7	2.3%	3.6%
Georgetown	6.4	13.6	13.4	16.6	0.4%	1.1%
DePaul	6.1	13.9	13.1	17.9	0.3%	0.9%

Villanova is again at the top of the conference, followed by Connecticut. Georgetown had a great run at the end of last year to win the Big East Tournament, but it is expected to fall back this season.

Creighton has been a perennial tournament team, but it lost a lot of players and is expected to fall to the bottom half of the league this year.

2021 Big Sky Basketball Projected Standings

	Conference		Overall		Conference Odds
Team	W	L	W	L	Reg	Tourn
Weber State	14.7	5.3	21.4	8.6	36.8%	30.2%
S Utah	13.4	6.6	18.9	10.1	20.2%	19.2%
Portland St	12.5	7.5	17.3	10.7	13.7%	14.1%
Montana	12.4	7.6	19.9	11.1	13.7%	13.8%
N Colorado	11.6	8.4	17.6	14.4	8.4%	9.8%
E Washingtn	9.2	10.8	13.5	16.5	2.3%	3.6%
Montana St	9.1	10.9	15.6	15.4	2.2%	3.5%
Idaho State	9.0	11.0	13.1	15.9	1.9%	3.5%
Sac State	7.0	13.0	10.9	18.1	0.5%	1.3%
Idaho	6.0	14.0	9.3	19.7	0.3%	0.6%
N Arizona	5.2	14.8	8.6	22.4	0.1%	0.4%

Eastern Washington won the conference tournament a year ago, but it lost brothers Tanner and Jacob Groves, both of whom transferred to Oklahoma. The Eagles are expected to fall back this year.

Weber State, who last won the conference in 2015-16, is the favorite this year.

2021 Big South Basketball Projected Standings

	Conference		Overall		Conference Odds
Team	W	L	W	L	Reg	Tourn
Winthrop	13.1	2.9	19.2	7.8	57.5%	49.6%
Campbell	9.8	6.2	17.4	11.6	9.4%	10.9%
Radford	9.7	6.3	16.3	14.7	8.4%	10.3%
Gard-Webb	9.5	6.5	15.3	12.7	8.5%	8.9%
Longwood	9.0	7.0	17.4	12.6	6.3%	7.1%
NC-Asheville	8.5	7.5	14.6	14.4	4.2%	4.9%
NC A&T	7.6	8.4	12.9	16.1	2.1%	3.2%
Hampton	6.6	9.4	13.1	16.9	1.1%	1.7%
High Point	6.4	9.6	11.9	17.2	1.4%	1.7%
Presbyterian	6.1	9.9	10.8	19.2	0.7%	1.0%
Charl South	5.3	10.7	10.5	18.5	0.3%	0.5%
SC Upstate	4.6	11.4	9.2	19.8	0.1%	0.3%

Winthrop won the Big South by five games last year and is again the heavy favorite.

2021 Big Ten Basketball Projected Standings

	Conference		Overall		Conference Odds
Team	W	L	W	L	Reg	Tourn
Michigan	13.8	6.2	22.3	7.7	23.9%	21.4%
Purdue	13.4	6.6	22.2	7.8	20.3%	17.6%
Illinois	12.9	7.1	20.9	8.1	15.9%	15.2%
Ohio State	12.6	7.4	20.7	9.3	12.8%	12.4%
Maryland	11.4	8.6	20.0	10.0	6.9%	8.5%
Indiana	11.2	8.8	20.8	10.2	6.9%	7.2%
Michigan St	10.5	9.5	16.4	11.6	4.7%	5.4%
Penn State	9.9	10.1	18.3	11.7	3.3%	3.8%
Iowa	9.6	10.4	18.4	11.6	2.9%	3.8%
Wisconsin	8.1	11.9	15.0	14.0	0.9%	1.4%
Northwestern	7.8	12.2	16.4	13.6	0.7%	1.3%
Rutgers	7.3	12.7	16.0	15.0	0.7%	1.2%
Nebraska	6.4	13.6	14.6	16.4	0.2%	0.5%
Minnesota	4.9	15.1	11.4	17.6	0.0%	0.2%

The Big Ten should again be deep and difficult this year. Michigan, Purdue, Illinois, and Ohio State should all compete for top NCAA Tournament seeds.

Rutgers just had its best season in a long time, but it is expected to fall back again this year. Wisconsin is also projected to finish lower than it has recently.

The Badgers have missed the NCAA tournament only once in the last 20 years, but they could be in jeopardy of doing so again.

2021 Big West Basketball Projected Standings

	Conference		Overall		Conference Odds
Team	W	L	W	L	Reg	Tourn
UCSB	15.3	4.7	22.7	7.3	37.8%	32.7%
UC Irvine	15.3	4.7	20.2	8.8	37.4%	32.1%
UC Riverside	12.9	7.1	19.5	12.5	12.3%	13.9%
Hawaii	10.8	9.2	15.0	12.0	4.1%	6.0%
CS Bakersfld	10.3	9.7	14.5	13.5	3.0%	5.0%
UC Davis	9.9	10.1	14.9	15.1	2.5%	4.3%
CS Fullerton	9.3	10.7	15.3	15.7	1.9%	3.2%
Cal St Nrdge	7.3	12.7	9.8	19.2	0.5%	1.2%
Lg Beach St	6.6	13.4	9.8	20.2	0.2%	0.8%
Cal Poly	6.5	13.5	9.4	20.6	0.2%	0.8%
UC San Diego	5.8	14.2	10.6	21.4	0.1%	0.0%

UCSB and UC-Irvine are strong co-favorites to win the Big West. Only one other team, UC-Riverside, has more than a 5 percent chance of winning the conference.

2021 CAA Basketball Projected Standings

	Conference		Overall		Conference Odds
Team	W	L	W	L	Reg	Tourn
Northeastrn	13.4	4.6	19.9	9.1	45.7%	35.7%
James Mad	11.0	7.0	17.8	11.2	16.6%	16.2%
Drexel	10.3	7.7	15.9	12.1	10.7%	11.9%
Hofstra	9.6	8.4	14.6	15.4	8.5%	9.7%
Delaware	9.0	9.0	15.6	13.4	5.8%	7.3%
Towson	9.0	9.0	14.5	15.5	5.6%	7.2%
NC-Wilmgton	7.9	10.1	15.7	15.3	2.8%	4.5%
Col Charlestn	7.9	10.1	13.2	17.8	2.9%	4.4%
Elon	6.8	11.2	11.5	17.5	1.3%	2.3%
Wm & Mary	5.1	12.9	8.4	20.6	0.2%	0.9%

Northeastern and James Madison tied atop the regular season standings last season, and are the top two favorites to win the conference this season. Drexel, which had a losing record in the regular season last year but won the conference tournament, is third.

2021 CUSA Basketball Projected Standings

	Conference		Overall		Conference Odds
Team	W	L	W	L	Reg	Tourn
UAB	14.2	3.8	24.4	5.6	45.3%	37.6%
W Kentucky	11.7	6.3	18.7	9.3	14.1%	12.9%
LA Tech	11.4	6.6	18.8	10.2	12.2%	13.2%
Marshall	10.7	7.3	18.6	12.4	8.2%	8.4%
Old Dominion	9.8	8.2	16.7	12.3	5.1%	6.0%
Charlotte	9.7	8.3	16.2	12.8	3.7%	4.4%
North Texas	9.4	8.6	12.4	12.6	4.2%	5.7%
Fla Atlantic	9.2	8.8	18.1	11.9	3.2%	4.1%
Rice	7.7	10.3	14.7	14.3	0.9%	2.0%
TX El Paso	7.6	10.4	13.9	15.1	1.0%	1.9%
S Mississippi	7.3	10.7	14.8	16.2	1.1%	1.8%
TX-San Ant	7.2	10.8	17.2	14.8	0.9%	1.4%
Florida Intl	5.7	12.3	13.3	17.7	0.1%	0.4%
Middle Tenn	4.4	13.6	9.9	20.1	0.0%	0.1%

North Texas won the conference regular-season title two years ago and the tournament last year, but it is projected to be in the middle of the pack this year.

UAB is the favorite this season. It will try to win the conference for the first time since 2015-16.

2021 Horizon League Basketball Projected Standings

	Conference		Overall		Conference Odds
Team	W	L	W	L	Reg	Tourn
Wright State	16.8	5.2	21.0	8.0	44.3%	36.0%
Cleveland St	14.7	7.3	18.5	11.5	17.9%	17.7%
N Kentucky	14.0	8.0	19.4	10.6	14.8%	15.5%
IPFW	12.3	9.7	17.7	13.3	6.4%	7.5%
IL-Chicago	11.8	10.2	14.6	14.4	5.3%	6.5%
Detroit	10.9	11.1	13.5	17.5	3.1%	4.3%
Oakland	10.7	11.3	11.5	16.5	2.8%	3.9%
WI-Milwkee	10.5	11.5	14.0	16.0	2.5%	3.6%
Rob Morris	9.9	12.1	12.8	18.2	1.8%	2.8%
Youngs St	8.9	13.1	13.7	17.3	1.0%	1.7%
WI-Grn Bay	6.4	15.6	8.5	22.5	0.1%	0.3%
IUPUI	5.0	17.0	9.5	22.5	0.0%	0.1%

Wright State is again favored to win the Horizon League in our projections. The Raiders have won at least a share of the conference regular-season title in each of the past three seasons, but they haven’t won the conference tournament in any of those years.

2021 Ivy Basketball Projected Standings

	Conference		Overall		Conference Odds
Team	W	L	W	L	Reg	Tourn
Yale	9.8	4.2	17.6	10.4	37.7%	30.4%
Princeton	9.2	4.8	17.2	8.8	26.0%	23.0%
Harvard	8.3	5.7	15.7	11.3	15.6%	24.2%
U Penn	7.8	6.2	12.6	14.4	12.0%	11.6%
Brown	5.8	8.2	11.2	15.8	3.1%	3.7%
Dartmouth	5.6	8.4	9.4	16.6	2.8%	3.4%
Cornell	5.3	8.7	9.7	16.3	2.2%	2.6%
Columbia	4.2	9.8	9.9	17.1	0.6%	0.9%

The Ivy League is back after taking the entire last season off due to the COVID-19 pandemic. Yale, Princeton, Harvard, and Penn are the most likely to reach the conference tournament and compete for an automatic bid.

2021 MAAC Basketball Projected Standings

	Conference		Overall		Conference Odds
Team	W	L	W	L	Reg	Tourn
Iona	14.4	5.6	18.6	9.4	41.8%	31.8%
St Peters	12.3	7.7	16.9	12.1	17.0%	16.2%
Monmouth	11.4	8.6	15.4	15.6	11.4%	12.1%
Marist	10.8	9.2	15.8	13.2	9.0%	9.8%
Niagara	9.3	10.7	14.0	16.0	3.9%	5.3%
Fairfield	9.3	10.7	14.7	16.3	3.6%	5.3%
Rider	9.1	10.9	12.5	16.5	3.7%	5.1%
Siena	8.8	11.2	12.1	16.9	3.1%	4.4%
Canisius	8.7	11.3	12.5	17.5	2.8%	4.1%
Quinnipiac	8.3	11.7	12.9	16.1	2.3%	3.5%
Manhattan	7.6	12.4	11.3	16.7	1.5%	2.6%

Rick Pitino broke through with Iona to win the Metro Atlantic tournament a year ago, and the Gaels are the solid favorite to repeat this year.

2021 MAC Basketball Projected Standings

	Conference		Overall		Conference Odds
Team	W	L	W	L	Reg	Tourn
Buffalo	15.2	4.8	20.5	8.5	31.0%	25.1%
Ohio	15.0	5.0	21.0	8.0	29.3%	25.8%
Toledo	13.2	6.8	18.6	10.4	13.6%	14.2%
Akron	12.7	7.3	19.0	10.0	9.0%	10.1%
Bowling Grn	12.0	8.0	17.5	10.5	7.5%	9.4%
Kent State	11.1	8.9	15.6	12.4	4.3%	6.6%
Miami (OH)	10.6	9.4	15.5	13.5	2.9%	4.6%
Ball State	10.3	9.7	16.2	13.8	2.1%	3.5%
Central Mich	6.6	13.4	9.7	21.3	0.2%	0.6%
W Michigan	5.2	14.8	9.7	21.3	0.0%	0.1%
E Michigan	4.9	15.1	8.3	22.7	0.0%	0.1%
N Illinois	3.3	16.7	5.5	24.5	0.0%	0.0%

Ohio surged to the conference tournament title last year as the 5th seed. Along with Buffalo, the Bobcats are the favorites to win the MAC this year.

Jim Whitesell of Buffalo will try for his first conference title after taking over the program three years ago when Nate Oats left for Alabama.

2021 MEAC Basketball Projected Standings

	Conference		Overall		Conference Odds
Team	W	L	W	L	Reg	Tourn
Morgan St	10.6	3.4	17.2	10.8	43.4%	37.8%
Norfolk St	9.1	4.9	15.5	13.5	19.3%	19.8%
Coppin State	8.3	5.7	11.3	19.7	13.2%	14.4%
Howard	8.2	5.8	14.1	15.9	12.4%	13.5%
NC Central	8.0	6.0	14.7	14.3	10.6%	11.6%
S Car State	4.1	9.9	7.7	23.3	0.4%	1.1%
Delaware St	3.9	10.1	7.1	19.9	0.3%	0.9%
Maryland ES	3.8	10.2	7.8	21.2	0.3%	0.9%

The MEAC has had a lot of changes this offseason. Maryland-Eastern Shore returns after taking last year off, and Howard is also back after playing only five games last season.

Florida A&M and Bethune-Cookman left the conference to join the SWAC, while North Carolina A&T went to the Big South Conference.

2021 Mountain West Basketball Projected Standings

	Conference		Overall		Conference Odds
Team	W	L	W	L	Reg	Tourn
San Diego St	13.3	4.7	20.5	7.5	28.7%	25.4%
Nevada	12.7	5.3	22.7	8.3	22.5%	20.8%
Utah State	12.3	5.7	19.6	8.4	16.7%	15.3%
Colorado St	12.2	5.8	19.3	7.7	16.6%	15.8%
Boise State	11.4	6.6	19.3	9.7	10.6%	12.0%
UNLV	9.5	8.5	16.2	13.8	2.4%	7.2%
Fresno St	8.5	9.5	14.9	14.1	1.2%	1.6%
Wyoming	8.5	9.5	15.2	13.8	1.2%	1.7%
New Mexico	5.4	12.6	10.7	19.3	0.0%	0.2%
Air Force	3.3	14.7	6.2	21.8	0.0%	0.0%
San Jose St	1.9	16.1	3.6	25.4	0.0%	0.0%

The Mountain West had a good race at the top last year, and it has five teams projected to finish with at least 11 wins this year. San Diego State remains the favorite.

2021 MVC Basketball Projected Standings

	Conference		Overall		Conference Odds
Team	W	L	W	L	Reg	Tourn
Loyola-Chi	13.7	4.3	21.6	6.4	41.1%	34.7%
Drake	12.9	5.1	21.9	7.1	28.4%	25.8%
Missouri St	11.5	6.5	19.9	9.1	14.3%	15.4%
N Iowa	10.8	7.2	16.8	11.2	9.5%	11.5%
S Illinois	8.9	9.1	16.4	12.6	3.3%	5.0%
Bradley	7.3	10.7	13.4	14.6	1.2%	2.3%
Indiana St	7.0	11.0	13.9	15.1	1.0%	2.1%
Valparaiso	6.6	11.4	13.6	15.4	0.7%	1.5%
Illinois St	6.0	12.0	12.4	16.6	0.3%	1.0%
Evansville	5.4	12.6	10.8	18.2	0.3%	0.7%

Head coach Porter Moser left Loyola-Chicago for Oklahoma, but the Ramblers are still the favorite to win the Missouri Valley. They’re just ahead of last year’s surprise team, Drake.

2021 Northeast Basketball Projected Standings

	Conference		Overall		Conference Odds
Team	W	L	W	L	Reg	Tourn
Bryant	12.3	5.7	16.8	11.2	30.5%	28.7%
Merrimack	10.9	7.1	16.7	14.3	16.4%	16.4%
Wagner	10.8	7.2	16.0	13.0	15.9%	15.4%
Mt St Marys	10.0	8.0	15.7	15.3	11.3%	11.1%
LIU	9.7	8.3	14.5	14.5	9.5%	10.0%
St Fran (PA)	9.2	8.8	13.5	15.5	7.7%	7.9%
Sacred Hrt	8.6	9.4	13.8	17.2	4.8%	5.5%
St Fran (NY)	7.5	10.5	12.4	17.6	2.5%	3.1%
F Dickinson	6.5	11.5	8.3	20.7	1.1%	1.6%
Central Conn	4.5	13.5	7.0	25.0	0.3%	0.4%

Bryant is the conference favorite, and it would be a great story if the Bulldogs can follow through. They have never made the NCAA tournament since moving to Division I, and they were 3-28 just four years ago.

2021 Ohio Valley Basketball Projected Standings

	Conference		Overall		Conference Odds
Team	W	L	W	L	Reg	Tourn
Belmont	15.1	2.9	21.4	6.6	50.1%	45.1%
Murray St	14.5	3.5	21.5	6.5	36.4%	35.2%
Morehead St	12.1	5.9	20.1	11.9	10.3%	12.7%
TN State	8.7	9.3	16.4	14.6	1.1%	2.3%
Austin Peay	8.3	9.7	12.3	16.7	1.0%	1.8%
SE Missouri	7.8	10.2	13.3	17.7	0.5%	1.3%
TN Tech	7.7	10.3	12.3	18.7	0.4%	1.2%
E Illinois	5.2	12.8	8.8	21.2	0.1%	0.2%
TN Martin	5.2	12.8	9.4	20.6	0.0%	0.1%
SIU Edward	5.2	12.8	9.8	20.2	0.1%	0.2%

The Murray State-Belmont rivalry atop the Ohio Valley Conference is expected to continue for this year, but no further. Belmont has already announced that it will join the Missouri Valley Conference after this season, while Murray State, one of the original conference members, basically announced its intention to consider all options when it comes to conference affiliation.

2021 Pac-12 Basketball Projected Standings

	Conference		Overall		Conference Odds
Team	W	L	W	L	Reg	Tourn
UCLA	15.1	4.9	24.2	6.8	39.7%	32.5%
Oregon	13.4	6.6	21.0	8.0	17.8%	18.0%
USC	13.3	6.7	22.0	8.0	18.8%	18.4%
Arizona	12.3	7.7	20.1	9.9	12.2%	11.8%
Colorado	9.8	10.2	16.9	12.1	3.1%	4.4%
Arizona St	9.8	10.2	16.1	12.9	3.1%	4.7%
Wash State	9.3	10.7	17.9	13.1	1.9%	3.1%
Stanford	8.3	11.7	14.5	14.5	1.1%	2.3%
Oregon St	8.1	11.9	15.4	14.6	1.1%	2.0%
Utah	7.8	12.2	14.2	14.8	0.8%	1.5%
Washington	7.3	12.7	13.8	16.2	0.4%	1.1%
California	5.6	14.4	12.0	18.0	0.1%	0.3%

UCLA will try to build on last year’s Final Four run and win the Pac-12. Arizona will try to rebound from recent struggles and last year’s self-imposed postseason ban.

2021 Patriot Basketball Projected Standings

	Conference		Overall		Conference Odds
Team	W	L	W	L	Reg	Tourn
Colgate	16.0	2.0	24.7	6.3	79.8%	72.5%
Boston U	11.5	6.5	18.5	11.5	8.7%	11.0%
Navy	11.0	7.0	15.7	13.3	7.0%	8.5%
American	8.3	9.7	13.3	16.7	1.1%	2.0%
Army	7.6	10.4	13.6	17.4	0.7%	1.3%
Loyola-MD	7.5	10.5	14.0	17.0	0.6%	1.2%
Bucknell	7.3	10.7	10.9	19.1	0.6%	1.0%
Lehigh	7.1	10.9	12.0	18.0	0.6%	0.9%
Lafayette	7.1	10.9	11.2	17.8	0.5%	0.9%
Holy Cross	6.6	11.4	11.9	18.1	0.4%	0.7%

The Patriot League will return to playing non-conference opponents and go back to a normal schedule after dividing up the conference into pods last year to reduce travel. Colgate dominated last season and is expected to repeat as Patriot League champs.

2021 SEC Basketball Projected Standings

	Conference		Overall		Conference Odds
Team	W	L	W	L	Reg	Tourn
Alabama	12.0	6.0	19.4	8.6	16.8%	16.0%
Arkansas	12.0	6.0	22.5	7.5	16.3%	14.8%
Auburn	12.0	6.0	21.0	8.0	15.1%	14.3%
Tennessee	11.9	6.1	20.6	9.4	16.0%	14.3%
Kentucky	11.8	6.2	22.1	8.9	14.4%	16.2%
Florida	11.5	6.5	21.1	8.9	12.7%	11.2%
LSU	9.2	8.8	18.5	11.5	3.1%	5.2%
Mississippi	8.6	9.4	16.8	11.2	2.2%	2.7%
Miss State	8.6	9.4	17.2	12.8	2.1%	2.9%
Texas A&M	7.4	10.6	16.1	12.9	0.8%	1.2%
Vanderbilt	6.3	11.7	13.6	15.4	0.2%	0.6%
S Carolina	5.4	12.6	13.2	16.8	0.1%	0.3%
Missouri	5.1	12.9	11.7	17.3	0.1%	0.3%
Georgia	4.4	13.6	12.4	18.6	0.0%	0.1%

The SEC is the most balanced league at the top this year. Six different teams are projected within 0.5 wins of first place, so the conference race is wide open.

2021 Southern Basketball Projected Standings

	Conference		Overall		Conference Odds
Team	W	L	W	L	Reg	Tourn
Furman	13.1	4.9	21.3	9.7	35.1%	29.7%
NC-Grnsboro	11.6	6.4	20.5	10.5	18.5%	17.9%
E Tenn St	11.5	6.5	18.2	10.8	18.4%	17.5%
Chattanooga	10.6	7.4	18.6	12.4	11.3%	12.1%
Wofford	10.5	7.5	19.1	12.9	9.8%	11.4%
Mercer	9.0	9.0	15.3	14.7	4.6%	6.2%
VA Military	7.0	11.0	14.5	16.5	1.1%	2.2%
Citadel	6.3	11.7	13.4	15.6	0.7%	1.5%
Samford	6.0	12.0	12.0	17.0	0.6%	1.3%
W Carolina	4.3	13.7	8.6	22.4	0.1%	0.3%

Furman, the conference favorite, has finished in the top three each of the last six seasons, but has only one shared conference regular-season title and no conference tournament championships over that span.

2021 Southland Basketball Projected Standings

	Conference		Overall		Conference Odds
Team	W	L	W	L	Reg	Tourn
Nicholls St	11.2	2.8	17.7	8.3	62.5%	52.9%
New Orleans	8.2	5.8	13.9	14.1	12.9%	14.9%
McNeese St	7.7	6.3	12.7	14.3	9.8%	11.4%
SE Louisiana	7.0	7.0	12.4	15.6	6.8%	8.3%
NW State	5.8	8.2	8.3	18.7	2.6%	3.9%
TX A&M-CC	5.7	8.3	12.0	16.0	2.5%	3.7%
Incar Word	5.3	8.7	10.2	19.8	1.5%	2.6%
Houston Bap	5.0	9.0	9.5	15.5	1.3%	2.3%

The Southland Conference has undergone some major changes, as five different schools left. That includes perennial power Stephen F. Austin and last year’s conference tournament champ Abilene Christian, both of whom are now in the WAC.

Nicholls State is the favorite among the teams that have stayed behind. You have to go back to the 2016-17 season for the last time one of the current conference members (New Orleans) won the auto bid for this league.

2021 Summit Basketball Projected Standings

	Conference		Overall		Conference Odds
Team	W	L	W	L	Reg	Tourn
S Dakota St	14.9	3.1	23.4	7.6	53.4%	44.7%
N Dakota St	12.8	5.2	20.2	9.8	19.7%	20.7%
Oral Roberts	11.9	6.1	18.2	10.8	12.0%	13.4%
South Dakota	11.5	6.5	18.9	10.1	9.1%	11.3%
UMKC	10.0	8.0	15.0	13.0	3.9%	5.7%
W Illinois	8.6	9.4	13.5	15.5	1.4%	2.8%
North Dakota	6.6	11.4	12.0	19.0	0.3%	0.8%
Neb Omaha	5.7	12.3	7.3	20.7	0.1%	0.4%
Denver	4.6	13.4	9.5	21.5	0.0%	0.2%
St. Thomas (MN)	3.4	14.6	7.9	22.1	0.0%	0.0%

Oral Roberts, who made a Cinderella run to the Sweet 16 as a No. 15 seed last year, is projected to finish third. South Dakota State is again the projected favorite.

2021 Sun Belt Basketball Projected Standings

	Conference		Overall		Conference Odds
Team	W	L	W	L	Reg	Tourn
Georgia St	12.5	5.5	19.4	9.6	32.6%	26.1%
Coastal Car	10.9	7.1	18.0	10.0	15.3%	14.4%
LA Lafayette	10.4	7.6	16.9	12.1	11.6%	11.8%
App State	10.0	8.0	15.8	13.2	9.0%	9.9%
Arkansas St	9.6	8.4	18.1	11.9	8.4%	8.6%
TX-Arlington	9.3	8.7	13.8	16.2	6.3%	6.8%
Texas State	9.2	8.8	16.0	13.0	5.7%	6.5%
S Alabama	8.9	9.1	16.1	13.9	5.3%	6.4%
LA Monroe	7.5	10.5	13.6	16.4	2.0%	3.2%
GA Southern	7.2	10.8	13.1	16.9	1.8%	2.8%
Troy	6.5	11.5	12.8	17.2	0.9%	1.9%
AR Lit Rock	6.0	12.0	10.8	19.2	0.9%	1.5%

Last year, Appalachian State was a surprise conference-tournament winner. We give the Mountaineers a 10 percent chance of winning the tournament again and project them as the fourth-most likely regular-season champ.

2021 SWAC Basketball Projected Standings

	Conference		Overall		Conference Odds
Team	W	L	W	L	Reg	Tourn
TX Southern	14.5	3.5	17.3	11.7	46.0%	39.5%
Prairie View	13.1	4.9	15.6	15.4	23.0%	22.7%
Jackson St	12.4	5.6	15.4	16.6	14.8%	14.2%
Grambling St	10.5	7.5	15.5	16.5	4.3%	7.0%
Southern	10.4	7.6	14.6	17.4	4.3%	6.7%
Florida A&M	10.2	7.8	13.3	17.7	4.7%	5.1%
Alcorn State	8.9	9.1	9.8	21.2	1.9%	2.7%
Alab A&M	8.2	9.8	9.5	19.5	0.4%	1.0%
Beth-Cook	7.3	10.7	10.0	20.0	0.5%	0.9%
Alabama St	5.5	12.5	7.3	24.7	0.0%	0.1%
Ark Pine Bl	5.2	12.8	7.1	23.9	0.0%	0.1%
Miss Val St	1.7	16.3	1.9	27.1	0.0%	0.0%

The SWAC expanded with additions of Florida A&M and Bethune-Cookman, but Texas Southern and Prairie View A&M are again the favorites. One of those schools has represented the SWAC in the NCAA Tournament in each of the last five years.

2021 WAC Basketball Projected Standings

	Conference		Overall		Conference Odds
Team	W	L	W	L	Reg	Tourn
N Mex State	13.7	4.3	20.4	7.6	38.0%	33.1%
Grd Canyon	11.8	6.2	20.9	11.1	14.0%	14.3%
Ste F Austin	11.4	6.6	17.6	10.4	10.6%	11.4%
Seattle	11.3	6.7	20.8	10.2	9.4%	10.2%
Abl Christian	11.2	6.8	18.5	10.5	8.5%	10.0%
Cal Baptist	10.4	7.6	18.5	11.5	5.1%	6.2%
Utah Val St	10.4	7.6	16.7	12.3	6.5%	8.3%
Sam Hous St	9.8	8.2	15.3	13.7	4.4%	5.5%
Tarleton State	9.5	8.5	15.6	15.4	2.8%	0.0%
TX-Pan Am	6.5	11.5	13.1	18.9	0.5%	0.7%
Lamar	6.1	11.9	10.8	20.2	0.2%	0.4%
Dixie State	4.4	13.6	8.9	20.1	0.0%	0.0%
Chicago St	0.5	17.5	1.4	29.6	0.0%	0.0%

The WAC expanded to 13 teams, adding several schools from the Southland Conference.

Stephen F. Austin and Abilene Christian give the conference better depth at the top, but New Mexico State is the favorite after a rare down year last season. Last year’s champ, Grand Canyon, is also among the leading contenders.

Meanwhile, Chicago State is projected to win only 0.5 games in the conference.

2021 WCC Basketball Projected Standings

	Conference		Overall		Conference Odds
Team	W	L	W	L	Reg	Tourn
Gonzaga	14.4	1.6	26.7	3.3	79.7%	69.4%
BYU	10.4	5.6	19.7	9.3	7.3%	10.1%
San Fransco	10.0	6.0	20.6	8.4	5.3%	7.5%
St Marys	10.0	6.0	18.4	9.6	5.6%	8.3%
Loyola Mymt	8.5	7.5	16.0	11.0	1.4%	3.0%
Pacific	6.9	9.1	17.2	12.8	0.4%	0.8%
San Diego	6.0	10.0	12.4	14.6	0.2%	0.4%
Santa Clara	5.6	10.4	13.2	15.8	0.2%	0.4%
Pepperdine	4.8	11.2	12.1	16.9	0.0%	0.2%
Portland	3.5	12.5	11.7	19.3	0.0%	0.0%

Gonzaga is again the heavy favorite in the WCC.

Can San Francisco break through this year? The Dons are projected in the same range as BYU and Saint Mary’s, but they haven’t had double-digit wins in the WCC since 2016-17 and were a disappointing 4-9 in conference play last year after pulling off a huge nonconference upset against Virginia in December.

Get Our Latest College Basketball Projections

Again, once the season begins and actual game results come in, you can find our most up-to-date projections on our college basketball projections page.