Phoenix Suns vs Houston Rockets Odds, Props & Predictions

Dec 26, 2023; Houston, Texas, USA; Houston Rockets guard Fred VanVleet (5) reacts after a foul call against the Indiana Pacers during the fourth quarter at Toyota Center. Mandatory Credit: Erik Williams-USA TODAY SportsLosers of three straight and five of six, the Phoenix Suns visit the Houston Rockets on Wednesday nightHouston had a modest two-game win streak broken last night by Indiana (123-117)With Houston playing the tail end of a back-to-back, the Suns vs Rockets odds slightly favor the visitors

The Kevin Durant-Devin Booker-Bradley Beal era in Phoenix has started with much more of a whimper than a bang. The Suns (14-15, 7-9 away, 10-18-1 ATS) are a game under .500 and currently sit 11th in the West, meaning they wouldn’t even crack the Play-In Tournament portion of the NBA playoff bracket if the season ended today.

Luckily for Phoenix, it doesn’t, and oddsmakers list the Suns as a slim road favorite against the Houston Rockets (15-13, 12-3 home, 17-9-1 ATS) at the Toyota Center (7:00 pm CT/8:00 pm ET).

Phoenix Suns vs Houston Rockets Odds

Wednesday’s NBA odds list the Suns as 2.5-point chalk and -135 on the moneyline to win straight-up. The Rockets come back at a +115 price to win their 13th home game of the season, while the game total is at 224.5.

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Today, all ESPN Bet users can wager on a boosted-odds parlay involving the Suns’ Kevin Durant. The full parlay is Jordan Poole (WSH), Jalen Brunson (NYK), and Durant all to make over 2.5 three-pointers, which has been boosted from +825 to +950. 

Despite Houston sitting 1.5 games up on Phoenix in the standings, the Suns are still miles ahead of the Rockets in the NBA Championship odds. As of Dec. 21, the Suns still had the second-best title odds among all Western Conference teams (+825 on average). The Rockets were still in the bottom-third of the league at +13875.

Houston’s Defense Has Been Smothering

Far outpacing preseason expectations, the Rockets can largely thank a defense that sits second in the entire NBA in Defensive Rating (109.9), trailing only the Western Conference-leading Minnesota Timberwolves (108.1). While Houston’s Offensive Rating leaves a lot to be desired (113.1, 20th), they still own a +3.1 Net Rating, which is good enough for eighth in the league and 3.2 points better than Phoenix (-0.1, 18th).

Houston suffered just its third home loss of the season last night to the visiting Pacers (123-117) and, even more concerning, saw their best perimeter defender, Dillon Brooks, leave the game with an abdominal injury. There is no official word on whether Brooks will be in today’s NBA lineups (he’s listed as a game-time decision) but it would be surprising if he suits up just 24 hours later.

Brooks averages 13.6 points, 3.5 rebounds, 1.7 assists, and 0.9 steals per game. He’s started all 28 games for the Rockets so far this season. If he’s unable to go, Tari Eason (9.6 PPG, 7.1 RPG, 1.2 APG in 21.3 MPG) will likely take his spot in the starting lineup.

Prior to the Indiana game, Houston had won two straight over playoff-caliber competition (vs Dallas and at New Orleans) along with seven of its past ten.

In just his second season, Turkish center Alperen Sengun is blossoming into a force at both ends of the court. He leads the team in scoring (20.8 PPG) and rebounding (9.5 RPG) while adding 5.2 assists, 1.0 steals, and 0.8 blocks per game. In the backcourt, veteran Fred VanVleet (17.1 PPG, 8.6 APG, 4.1 RPG) has ably filled the hole left by Kevin Porter Jr, who was kicked off the team after domestic-violence allegations. Porter Jr had a turnover percentage of 15.8% last season. The circumspect VanVleet is at just 9.3 and is sixth in the entire NBA in assist-to-turnover ratio (5.3-to-1).

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Suns Drop Third Straight on Christmas

Phoenix enters Wednesday in something of a tailspin. Wrapping up the Christmas Day festivities with a home game against the Kyrie Irving-less Dallas Mavericks, Phoenix started slowly and never really recovered. The Suns allowed Dallas to open a 12-point lead after the first quarter and take a ten-point margin into halftime. While Phoenix briefly took a four-point lead early in the fourth quarter, they were powerless to contain Luka Doncic down the stretch. The Slovenian finished with 50 points and 15 assists on 15-of-25 shooting from the floor.

With Beal once again out with a, the two remaining components of Phoenix’s “big three” were downright mediocre. Kevin Durant finished with just 16 points and eight rebounds on 4-of-11 shooting. Devin Booker had 20 points and 10 assists on 6-of-14 from the floor, but was a -20 while on the court.

When Durant (30.3 PPG, 6.2 RPG, 5.5 APG) and Booker (27.4 PPG,  8.3 APG, 5.3 RPG) are both falling well short of their averages – and Beal is out of the lineup – the Suns are going to find it nearly impossible to win games. Durant and Booker has Player Efficiency Ratings of 23.5 and 22.4, respectively. The next two leading scorers on the team, Eric Gordon (13.2 PPG) and Grayson Allen (13.0 PPG), have fairly dismal PERs of 13.0 and 11.5.

Suns vs Rockets Player Props

Player props from the DraftKings app.  

With the Rockets’ lineup somewhat unclear on the second half of back-to-back games, Wednesday’s NBA props don’t list any Houston players yet. Durant has the highest point total over/under at 28.5, nearly two lower than his season average, while Booker is at 26.5, roughly one point lower than his season average.

The attenuated totals are motivated by more than just Houston’s stout defense. The Rockets also play at the third-slowest pace in the league, meaning the Suns are likely to see fewer possessions than usual.

Phoenix Suns vs Houston Rockets Prediction

There are multiple reasons to fade both teams here. It’s hard to be too bullish on the Rockets on the tailend of a back to back with their best defender either out or less than 100%. At the same time, they have been phenomenal at home (last night notwithstanding) and the Suns look to be in complete disarray, especially at the defensive end. (Phoenix is 19th in the league in Defensive Rating at 115.4.)

As evidenced by the NBA title odds, oddsmakers are still giving the Suns the benefit of the doubt, and that’s translating to individual game spreads as well, which is why the underperforming Suns have the third-worst ATS record in the entire league.

Until I see the Suns turn their season around, I will continue to bet against them at plus-money.

Suns vs Rockets pick: Houston Rockets moneyline (+120 on the FanDuel app)

Sascha Paruk’s 2023-24 NBA betting record:

10-7-2 ATS (+2.41 units)8-7 ML (+2.05 units)5-11 player props (-6.6 units)

All wagers one unit unless expressly stated otherwise.