Georgia vs Florida State Prediction, Odds, Opt Outs & Player Props – 2023 Orange Bowl

Georgia quarterback Carson Beck (15) throws a touchdown pass to Georgia wide receiver Rara Thomas (5) during the first half of a NCAA college football game against Kentucky in Athens, Ga., on Saturday, Oct. 7, 2023.We’ve made our Georgia vs Florida State prediction for the Orange Bowl on SaturdayThe latest UGA vs FSU odds are heavily in favor of the BulldogsRead below for Georgia vs Florida State prediction, odds, and player props to bet on

It’s Georgia vs Florida State in a battle of the top two teams left out of the College Football Playoff. The Capital One Orange Bowl is set to kick off on Saturday, December 30th, 2023, at 4:00 PM ET.

According to the latest Orange Bowl betting odds at ESPN Sportsbook, Georgia is favored to win by nearly three touchdowns. The over/under is set at 44.5 for a matchup featuring UGA’s Carson Beck vs FSU’s third-string quarterback.

Let’s offer you our Georgia vs Florida State prediction as we analyze the odds and give you our top player props.

Georgia vs FSU Odds

In the Georgia vs FSU odds, the Bulldogs are massive -1200 moneyline favorites, giving them 92% implied probability to win the Orange Bowl.

Florida State is heading into its 50th bowl game with a 30-17-2 record in such games, including a balanced 5-5 record in the Orange Bowl. Meanwhile, Georgia has a history of success in bowl games, with six consecutive wins and a 37-21-3 overall record. They have a 3-1 record in past Orange Bowl appearances.

In the history of matchups between these two teams, Georgia leads with a 6-4-1 record. The last time they met was in the Sugar Bowl after the 2002 regular season, where Georgia emerged victorious with a 26-13 win.

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Bulldogs Heavy Favorites over Seminoles

Georgia enters the Orange Bowl as significant favorites over Florida State, primarily due to major FSU opt-outs (more on that below). The Bulldogs are coming off a disappointing loss to Alabama in the SEC Championship game, while FSU won the ACC Championship game against Louisville to complete an undefeated season.

The Seminoles are currently on a 19-game winning streak, ranking them second in the nation. Similarly, the Bulldogs have an impressive record, having won 45 of their last 47 games. Despite these achievements, neither team made it into the top four for the College Football Playoff.

Next meeting… on the field 🤝 #GoDawgs x #KeepCLIMBing pic.twitter.com/yhXFbkREhr

— Capital One Orange Bowl (@OrangeBowl) December 29, 2023

Aside from the opt-outs, the main reason the Bulldogs are favored is their dominant defense. They have allowed only 9.6 points per game this season, which is the best in the nation. Florida State’s strength, meanwhile, is their high-powered offense, which has averaged 37.5 points per game this season.

UGA will have its starting quarterback available, Carson Beck, who has thrown for 2,500 yards and 22 touchdowns this season. FSU, meanwhile, will be turning to third-string pivot Brock Glenn, who has completed 8/21 passes for 55 yards while rushing nine times for -6 yards in the ACC Championship.

Georgia Florida State Opt-Outs

Florida State has seen several players leave the team since their win against Louisville in the ACC title game. Backup quarterback Tate Rodemaker, who played a crucial role in a victory over Florida, has entered the transfer portal and won’t play in the Orange Bowl.

The Seminoles will also be without several key players, including top running back Trey Benson, wide receivers Keon Coleman, Johnny Wilson, and Jaheim Bell, as well as All-America defensive end Jared Verse. It’s uncertain if defensive tackle Fabien Lovett, who is headed to the NFL, will play against Georgia.

Key FSU Opt-Outs

Tate Rodemaker, QBTrey Benson, RBKeon Coleman, WRJohnny Wilson, WRJared Verse, DE

Georgia, on the other hand, doesn’t have any notable bowl opt-outs but could be without a key player. A significant concern for Georgia is the health of their All-America tight end, Brock Bowers. Bowers had an ankle injury earlier in the season and has not been at his best since his return. Coach Kirby Smart emphasized the importance of Bowers being fully fit to play.

Despite the injury, Bowers has impressive stats this season, with 56 catches, 714 yards, and six touchdowns. He is also among Georgia’s top players in several receiving categories. The latest Brock Bowers injury update is he’s questionable to play Saturday.

Ladd McConkey, a key wide receiver for Georgia, is expected to play in the bowl game after an injury-riddled season.

UGA vs FSU Player Props to Target

When it comes to Georgia vs. Florida State player props for the Orange Bowl, we love the value on UGA running back Kendall Milton. ESPN Bet has set his rushing yards total at 57.5 yards, and we think he gets to this over facing a vulnerable FSU rush defense.

The Seminoles were very solid against the pass this season but still gave up 135 yards per game on the ground. In fact, there were only two games this season in which they surrendered fewer than 100 yards to the running back position.

Kendall Milton last 3 games:

41 carries 349 yards (8.5 avg) 5 TD

KM2 has been a BEAST down the stretch‼️#GoDawgs pic.twitter.com/Y4olQMWIee

— ᑕOAᑕᕼ YEAᕼ 🏆🏆 (@EVILCOACHYEAH) November 26, 2023

Milton recently exploded for 156 yards on the ground against GA Tech and has averaged 97 yards per game over his past four contests. Not only is he seemingly playing his best football at the moment, but this is also Milton’s final college game, so we expect him to go out with a bang on Saturday.

On the Florida State side, there aren’t many player props available at the time of publishing (probably due to the uncertainty around opt-outs), but we’re looking to fade Brock Glenn against this UGA defense. The freshman only completed 38.1% of his passes against a mediocre Louisville defense and now faces one of the nation’s most dominant units.

Orange Bowl Player Props Picks:

Kendall Milton OVER 57.5 Rushing Yards (-114)Brock Glenn UNDER Passing Yards & Rushing Yards (TBD)

Georgia vs Florida State Prediction

FSU is now down a staggering NINETEEN players in the Orange Bowl, so the betting line movement is well warranted. It’s almost guaranteed Georgia will win the game, but the question becomes whether or not UGA can cover the large spread.

The Bulldogs were 9-point favorites in their last non-CFP Bowl game (2021 vs. Cincinnati) and only won by three points. Furthermore, some interesting trends are pointing FSU’s way, as the Seminoles are 7-1 ATS in their last eight as an underdog and 4-1 ATS in their last five vs the SEC.

The WORK is still the same, only the location has changed#NoleFamily | #KeepCLIMBing pic.twitter.com/hZ3QO7IO4w

— FSU Football (@FSUFootball) December 27, 2023

Still, the Seminoles are basically putting out a completely different team on the field Saturday compared to the one that went undefeated this past season. The depth of Georgia’s team, even with potential absences like Brock Bowers, is a key factor in their favor.

We’re backing the Bulldogs while the line is under three touchdowns. Look for them to make a statement heading into the 2024 campaign against a depleted FSU team lacking experience.

Georgia vs FSU Pick: UGA -20 (-110)

 

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