Dallas Cowboys vs Miami Dolphins Odds, Prediction & Spread for NFL Week 16

Dec 17, 2023; Miami Gardens, Florida, USA; Miami Dolphins quarterback Tua Tagovailoa (1) and running back Raheem Mostert (31) celebrate after defeating the New York Jets at Hard Rock Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Jasen Vinlove-USA TODAY SportsThe Miami Dolphins are 1-point home favorites over the Dallas Cowboys in their NFL Week 16 matchup on Sunday, December 24Dallas is 4-0 SU and 3-1 ATS in the last four meetings between these two teams. Miami is 6-1 SU and 5-2 ATS at home this seasonGet all of the Dallas vs Miami odds and our top Cowboys vs Dolphins picks below

The first time the Dallas Cowboys (10-4, 9-5 ATS) and Miami Dolphins (10-4, 9-5 ATS) ever met was in the Super Bowl. With both teams currently leading their divisions, could this clash in South Beach be a preview of coming attractions? Oddsmakers are nearly split when it comes to Sunday’s Cowboys vs Dolphins odds.

Dallas tops the NFC East, while Miami heads the AFC East. Each team has been dominant at home this season, not so much on the road. And both have endured their struggles when squaring off against the NFL’s elite. So how will they fare against each other?

Oddsmakers are giving the slight edge to the team with the home-field advantage for this game. Miami is set as the 1-point chalk in the Cowboys vs Dolphins odds.

Cowboys vs Dolphins Odds

In the Dallas vs Miami odds, the Dolphins are -120 moneyline favorites, giving them an 54.55% implied win probability. The total is set at 49.5 points. Both Dallas (8-5-1) and Miami (8-6) are among the best over bets in the NFL this season.

ESPN BET

Get a $1,000 Bet Reset, 50 Free Bonus Spins, and 24-Hour InsuranceMust manually enter promo code DIME to claim offer.

LOCK IN PROMOCODE: DIMECODE: DIMESIGNUP OFFERUSE PROMO CODEDIME

FIRST BET RESET UP TO $1,000

GET OFFER NOW

Odds as of Dec. 22 at ESPN BET. Check out our ESPN BET promo before betting on Cowboys vs Dolphins and other Week 16 NFL action. And don’t forget to input the promo code “DIME” when signing up at ESPN BET to get your $250 in bonus bets by betting just $10 on any game.

Kickoff for this game at Hard Rock Stadium on Sunday, December 24, is set for 4:25 pm ET. The broadcast is being carried by FOX.

Dallas vs Miami Betting Trends

In the NFL public betting splits at the time of this writing, the Cowboys were getting 55% of spread handle and 68% of moneyline handle. Dallas is 3-0 both straight up and against the spread in the club’s last three visits to Miami.

Miami is 4-1 SU in the past five games and 12-5 ATS over the last 17 games. Dallas is 5-1 SU in their last six games and 6-3 ATS over their past nine games. The Cowboys also are 5-2 ATS in the last seven meetings with the Dolphins.

The under has hit the last three times these two teams played, as well as eight out of the last 10 meetings. It’s also been the under that was the winning play in eight of the last 11 road games for Dallas. Three of Miami’s last four games have gone over.

Dallas is the third betting choice to win the NFC in the NFL Conference odds at +500. The Dolphins are set with third-best odds of +375 to wear the crown as AFC champions.

Super Bowl 59 Odds for 2025: 49ers Open as Favorites, But Chiefs Are Close SecondRead More

Is This the Fraud Bowl?

The story of the season for these two squads reads like a tale of two teams. At home, Miami is 6-1 SU and 5-2 ATS. The Dolphins are 4-3 both SU and ATS on the road.

Dallas is a perfect 7-0 SU and 6-1 ATS as a home team. The Cowboys are 3-4 SU and ATS as an away team.

Dolphins must beat the Cowboys, they’ll be on the wrong side of this historical statistic if they don’t:#FinsUp

pic.twitter.com/Aedse7o2Vh

— Emmanuel Acho (@EmmanuelAcho) December 21, 2023

Each club also has struggled to prove they’re the real deal when squaring off against the NFL’s better teams. Dallas had one win against a team with a winning record entering Week 16, a home-field verdict over the Philadelphia Eagles. Two, now that the Rams became 8-7 after their TNF win. The Dolphins lost to the Eagles – in fact they haven’t beaten a winning team all season long. Each of Miami’s 10 wins have come against .500 or worse teams.

So who wins when these two teams face each other? The football world awaits that answer.

Tua Tough at Home

Dolphins QB1 Tua Tagovailoa owns a .792 winning percentage on his home field. That’s the best number of any QB in NFL history with a minimum of 20 career starts. His passer rating at home is 114.5. Tagovailoa has thrown 15 TDs against four interceptions at Hard Rock Stadium.

𝗧𝗥𝗘𝗡𝗗𝗜𝗡𝗚: #Dolphins quarterback Tua Tagovailoa says that he “keeps receipts” of the people who say he’s only good because of the players around him, via @OmarKelly

“I keep receipts. All the narratives about it. I am only good with Tyreek in. I'm only good when Jaylen is… pic.twitter.com/u82Wp21nWL

— JPAFootball (@jasrifootball) December 20, 2023

Dallas QB1 Dak Prescott also sensational at home. He’s averaging 304 yards passing per game and a 74% completion rate. But he’s not at home this week. On the road, Prescott is averaging just 216 yards per game through the air, with a 63% completion rate. And five of his seven picks were thrown in away games.

Cowboys vs Dolphins Prediction

Dallas hasn’t lost a game at Miami since 1984. In their three games this season against winning teams, the Dolphins have lost by an average margin of 16.3 points. In fact, Miami hasn’t beaten a team with a winning record since October of 2022.

Cowboys vs Dolphins Picks: Dallas Cowboys +1 (-110)