Michigan vs Penn State Odds, Prediction & Props to Bet

Michigan quarterback J.J. McCarthy celebrates a touchdown against Indiana scored by running back Blake Corum during the first half of U-M’s 52-7 win over Indiana on Saturday, Oct. 14, 2023, in Ann Arbor.The #2 Michigan Wolverines are 4-point road favorites over the #9 Penn State Nittany Lions in their Big Ten college football game on Saturday, November 11Michigan is 7-2 against the spread in the last nine meetings with Penn StateThe Wolverines are 20-0 straight up in their last 20 Big Ten Conference games

The #2 Michigan Wolverines (9-0, 4-4-1 ATS) are perfect on the NCAA football season, while the #9 Penn State Nittany Lions (8-1, 7-2 ATS) are the next closest thing to perfection. But most football pundits are of the belief that Penn State will need to play a near-perfect game this week in order to beat Michigan.

Unbeaten Michigan has scored 40+ points in five successive Big Ten games. Individually, Michigan RB Blake Corum leads the nation in total touchdowns (16) and rushing TDs (16).

No wonder then that oddsmakers are setting the Wolverines as the 4-point road chalk in the Michigan vs Penn State odds. Michigan is 7-6 straight up all-time at Penn State.

Let’s take a deep dive into the Michigan vs Penn State odds and offer you our prediction for this Week 11 clash of Big Ten titans.

Michigan vs Penn State Odds

In the Michigan vs Penn State odds, the Wolverines are -205 moneyline favorites, giving them a 67.21% implied win probability. The total is set at 45 points. That’s the lowest total on this game since 2017 (42.5 points).

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Odds as of Nov. 11 at DraftKings. Check out our DraftKings Review before betting on Wolverines vs Nittany Lions and other college football Week 11 action this week.

Last year, Michigan clobbered Penn State 41-17, easily covering as 7-point home favorites. The Wolverines have both won and covered in the last two games with the Nittany Lions.

Kickoff for this game at Beaver Stadium on Saturday, November 11 is set for 12:00 pm ET. The broadcast is being carried by FOX.

Wolverines vs Nittany Lions Betting Trends

The college football public betting splits are loving Michigan in both the spread and moneyline action. Michigan is drawing 74% of handle and 76% of bets in the spread splits. The Wolverines are 4-1 ATS over the past five games.

In moneyline splits, the people are going with Michigan with 99% of handle and 86% of bets. The Wolverines are 6-3 SU in the last nine games against the Nittany Lions.

The low total of 46 points is creating plenty of wagering on the over. It’s pulling 68% of handle and 74% of bets. Penn State is 6-3 on the total this season, while Michigan is 4-4-1.

Michigan is the +220 favorite in the National Championship odds. Penn State is the ninth pick in this market at +10000 odds.

First True Test For Wolverines

Michigan is among seven FBS schools that are 9-0 SU on the season. Certainly, the numbers on the final scores posted by the Wolverines are impressive. They beat Indiana 52-7 and Minnesota 52-10. Michigan State was blanked 49-0.

Michigan is fifth in the nation in scoring offense, accumulating 40.7 points per game. The Wolverines defense is leading the NCAA in scoring defense (6.7 PPG allowed), total defense (231.4 yards per game allowed), pass defense (141.3 YPGA) and first downs allowed (102). QB JJ McCarthy is a leading contender in the Heisman Trophy odds. He’s second in the FBS in passing efficiency (188.7 passer rating).

J.J. McCarthy passes Tom Brady for the 9th most passing yards in school history. #BigTen pic.twitter.com/hE90S8TvSx

— NBC Sports (@NBCSports) November 5, 2023

Still, there’s a nagging question that hasn’t been answered while Michigan’s been running the table. Can the Wolverines beat a top school? The Maize and Blue haven’t played a ranked team all season long. They’ll get two in the next three games – Penn State on Saturday and #3 Ohio State on November 25.

Michigan coach Jim Harbaugh is just 2-2 SU at Penn State. The Wolverines were 21-17 winners on their last visit there in 2021.

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Can Franklin Win The Big One?

The great teams build their reputations based on how they perform when playing on the big stage. During his coaching career at Penn State. James Franklin is 12-24 SU against schools ranked in the top 25.

James Franklin at Penn State:

❌ 1-5 vs Top 10 Teams At Home❌ 5-8 vs Ranked Teams at Home❌ 1-7 vs Top 5 Teams❌ 3-6 vs Michigan

Will James Franklin break the trend this weekend? pic.twitter.com/zWkOdnfuQC

— College Football Report (@CFBRep) November 6, 2023

He and the Nittany Lions already failed this test once this season. Penn State lost 20-12 at Ohio State.

That dropped Franklin to 1-5 SU against top-five schools. He’s 1-7 SU at home when facing top-10 teams. Overall, Penn State is 5-8 SU at home against ranked teams under Franklin.

Michigan vs Penn State Prediction

Certainly the Nittany Lions will be presenting the Wolverines with their toughest test of the 2023 campaign. Penn State is third in the nation in scoring defense (11.9 PPG) and sixth in scoring offense (40.2 PPG).

However, Franklin is just 3-6 SU against Michigan. The Wolverines haven’t won by less than a 24-point margin and have displayed the ability to adapt. When Purdue stifled the Michigan run game last week, McCarthy threw for a season-high 335 yards.

Michigan vs Penn State Pick: Michigan Wolverines -4 (-112)

 

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