Opening Night Odds, Predictions, Expert Picks Including Lakers vs Nuggets & Suns vs Warriors

October 20, 2023; San Francisco, California, USA; Golden State Warriors guard Chris Paul (3, left) and guard Stephen Curry (30) celebrate against the San Antonio Spurs during the second quarter at Chase Center. Mandatory Credit: Kyle Terada-USA TODAY SportsThe 2023-24 NBA season tips off on Tuesday, Oct. 23, with the Los Angeles Lakers vs Denver Nuggets and Phoenix Suns vs Golden State WarriorsChris Paul will be making his Golden State debut against his former Phoenix teammatesSee odds and picks for Lakers vs Nuggets and Suns vs Warriors on NBA Opening Night

The 2023-24 NBA season officially gets underway on Tuesday, October 23, with a pair of high-profile matchups in the Western Conference.

The early tip-off sees LeBron James and the Los Angeles Lakers (43-39, 20-21 away, 40-41-1 ATS last season) visiting the defending NBA-champion Denver Nuggets (53-29, 34-7 home, 44-37-1 ATS). Storylines abound in the late game as Chris Paul and the new-look Golden State Warriors (44-38, 33-8 home, 39-42-1 ATS) host Paul’s former team the Phoenix Suns (45-37, 17-24 away, 42-38-2 ATS), who are of course led by former Warrior Kevin Durant.

NBA Odds for Tuesday, Oct. 23

The Lakers/Nuggets odds heavily favor Denver starting its season with a win. The Nuggets are -218 on the moneyline and are laying five points in Tuesday’s NBA odds.

The Suns/Warriors matchup is effectively a pick’em; Golden State is listed at -115 on the moneyline with the Suns at -105.

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Odds as of Oct. 24 on the DraftKings Sportsbook app.

The NBA public betting splits show the Lakers getting the majority of ATS money (54% as of early Tuesday morning) but the Nuggets getting more of the moneyline handle (54%). The public is heavily backing the Warriors on the moneyline (70% of handle) and ever-so-slightly against the spread (52%).

Los Angeles Lakers vs Denver Nuggets Odds & Pick

Both the Lakers and Nuggets enter the 2023-24 season relatively healthy. Offseason acquisition Jarred Vanderbilt, who’s listed on the Lakers’ depth chart as the starting power forward, is out with a heel injury. LeBron James missed a handful of preseason games but the new oldest-player-in-the-league is reportedly “100% healthy”. No starters or rotation players are at risk of missing the game for Denver, which returns all starters and major contributors from last season’s championship-winning team.

The Lakers and Nuggets split their four head-to-head matchups last season with each team winning both games on their home court. All four finished with double-digit margins of victory.

Dominating at home has become par for the course for the Nuggets in the Nikola Jokic era. Denver has finished third or better in the Western Conference in four of the past five seasons, and made the playoffs in five straight, which coincides with the first time Jokic averaged over 20 PPG in his eight-year career. In that span, Denver is 142-54 at home (a 72.5 win percentage). With more of the same expected from Jokic personally – he starts as the betting favorite in the NBA MVP odds – much of the same should be expected of the Nuggets as a group.

The Lakers, meanwhile, have finished under .500 on the road in each of the past two seasons, going 32-50 in total.

During the 82-game grind that is the NBA regular season, the Nuggets get an extra home-court boost playing at altitude.  That’s not as significant on Opening Night when everyone’s legs should be fresh, but the Nuggets still rattled off four straight home wins at the beginning of last season, including an 11-point win over the Lakers.

With a spread this slim, back the Nuggets at Denver until their home-court domination shows signs of trending down.

Lakers vs Nuggets Pick: Nuggets -5 (-112)

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Phoenix Suns vs Golden State Warriors Odds & Prediction

The battle between the Suns and Warriors will see two teams adjusting to major offseason acquisitions. The Suns are welcome to the fold Bradley Beal, who forms the league’s newest “big three” alongside Kevin Durant and Devin Booker. For the Warriors, Chris Paul joins a squad that’s likely to run a three-guard lineup, with Steph Curry and Klay Thompson alongside the four-time All-NBA First Team point guard.

The Suns took three of four from Golden State last year, including a stunning 125-113 road victory without Booker and prior to the trade that brought in Durant. Mikal Bridges, who went to Brooklyn in the Durant deal, led the way with 26 points and nine boards as Phoenix pulled off the upset as 12-point underdogs.

Significantly, the Warriors will be missing forward Draymond Green in Tuesday’s NBA lineups. Green, a perennial contender in the NBA Defensive Player of the Year odds, has been working his way back from a left ankle sprain, but isn’t quite game-ready. Andrew Wiggins and Kevon Looney are likely to start in the Golden State frontcourt in Green’s absence.

The Suns are also banged up with both Beal (back) and Booker (toe) listed as questionable for the season opener.

Even with Draymond sidelined, the Warriors are the play here in a roughly pick’em game. Golden State remains one of the best home teams in the NBA, going 33-8 at home last season, while the Suns limped to a 17-24 road record. Looney and Wiggins were both starters for the majority of last year: Looney started 70 of the 82 games he played while Wiggins started all 37 he played in an injury-plagued season for the former #1-overall pick.

The Suns certainly have the manpower to dominate on a nightly basis, but I don’t expect a ton of cohesion out of the gate. Beal, Booker, and Durant are all score-first superstars. It should be much easier for Golden State to work Paul, one of the greatest passers in NBA history, into an otherwise intact lineup from last year.

Suns vs Warriors Pick: Warriors moneyline (-115)

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