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Here are our favorite home run prop bets for Saturday’s slate.
Saturday’s Best MLB Home Run Prop Bets
Aaron Judge (+164) | Juan Soto (+300) | Ben Rice (+390)
The Rays are sending out second-year starter Taj Badley this afternoon against the Yankees. Bradley is 4-4 with a 2.90 ERA. While his ERA looks great, sitting below three, his xERA is almost an entire run higher at 3.88, with his at 3.68. What does this mean? This means that Mr. Bradley may be getting a bit lucky and not pitching as well as his ERA shows.
His home/road splits are drastically different as well. At home, Bradley is 3-3 with a 1.50 ERA in 48 IP. On the road, he is 1-1 with a 6.20 ERA in just 20 IP.
To make matters worse, the Rays right-hander is making his first-ever start at Yankee Stadium. It’s not exactly an ideal situation for Bradley and the Rays.
In 12 starts this season, Bradley has allowed 10 HRs. If you look at his game log, he has done an excellent job limiting the long ball heading into the break, not allowing HR in three straight starts. But taking a deeper dive, those teams, Guardians, Rangers, and Nationals, all rank in the bottom half in HR against right-handed pitchers.
Today, he gets the Yankees, who have hit 111 HR against righties, trailing only the Orioles (114).
Taj Bradley has faced two other teams that rank inside the top 5 in HR hits against righties: the Orioles and Red Sox. In four starts against those two teams, he has allowed eight HRs.
This could get ugly for the 23-year-old if he is not careful.
Aaron Judge, Juan Soto, and Ben Rice all rank in the top 25 in FantasyPros Daily HR Projections, with Aaron Judge having the 2nd highest projection, trailing only Shohei Ohtani.
Among players with at least 70 at-bats against opposing right-handed hitters, Judge, Soto, and Rice rank in the top 15 in ISO, eclipsing the .285 mark.
With the game total set at 8.5, there is good reason to believe there will be runs scored, and I’d expect a lot of those runs to come from the Yankees’ sluggers.
Honorable Mention
- Brandon Nimmo (+540)
