Auburn vs Maryland Prediction, Line, Odds & Picks – Music City Bowl 2023

Nov 18, 2023; Auburn, Alabama, USA; Auburn Tigers quarterback Payton Thorne (1) throws a pass against the New Mexico State Aggies during the second quarter at Jordan-Hare Stadium. Mandatory Credit: John Reed-USA TODAY SportsMaryland Battles Auburn in the Music City Bowl on Saturday, December 30thTerrapins QB Taulia Tagovailoa is among the key opt-outs for the gameRead below for Auburn vs Maryland odds, line, and prediction for Saturday

The TransPerfect Music City Bowl will feature the Auburn Tigers (6-6) and the Maryland Terrapins (7-5) on Saturday, December 30th, 2023 at 2:00 PM ET on ABC.

The Tigers are currently favored by 7 points with a total of 47.5 points. Terrapins veteran QB Taulia Tagovailoa has opted out of this game, while several Auburn defensive players won’t be available.

Let’s get into our Auburn vs Maryland prediction, as we analyze the betting line for the Music City Bowl.

Auburn vs Maryland Odds

In the Auburn vs Maryland odds, the Tigers are -240 moneyline favorites, giving them a 71% implied win probability.

Auburn leads Maryland 2-1 in the all-time series, although the two programs haven’t clashed since 1983.

Odds as of December 30th, at ESPN Bet. Use the promo code “DIME” to sign up at the ESPN Sportsbook and unlock a $250 bonus for the Music City Bowl.

Terrapins Without Tagovailoa

In the upcoming Music City Bowl, the Maryland football team faces a significant change as they play without their star quarterback, Taulia Tagovailoa, who holds the Big Ten’s record for the most passing yards ever. Maryland (7-5) will have to rely on two relatively inexperienced quarterbacks in this game.

Tagovailoa, the brother of Tua Tagovailoa from the Miami Dolphins, broke numerous passing records at Maryland and in the Big Ten. With his absence, the team turns to Billy Edwards Jr., a redshirt sophomore, and Cameron Edge, a redshirt freshman. Together, they have only attempted 13 passes in the regular season. However, Edwards has shown promise with his rushing ability, scoring five touchdowns in the last two games.

Taulia Tagovailoa will opt out of Maryland’s bowl game vs Auburn pic.twitter.com/Sv1cJ0kSaR

— Unnecessary Roughness (@UnnecRoughness) December 19, 2023

Under Tagovailoa, Maryland’s passing game was strong, averaging 284.8 yards per game, while their running game added another 108.9 yards per game. They will need more from their rushing game Saturday without Tagovailoa’s arm to rely on.

The team’s leading rusher is Roman Hemby, with 663 yards and four touchdowns. Jeshaun Jones and Tai Felton are key receivers, with Jones making 53 catches for 747 yards and Felton catching 48 passes for 723 yards.

Maryland had a strong start to the season but faced tough losses against highly ranked teams in their conference. They average 29.6 points per game and allow 23.3 points against them.

Tigers Aiming to End Bowl Streak

Auburn (6-6), coached by Hugh Freeze in his first year, is seeking its first bowl win since 2018. They had a mixed season, with a strong start, a losing streak, and then a recovery before losing closely to Alabama.

Auburn averages 27.3 points per game and allows 21.9 points on average. They generate 355.5 yards per game, with a balanced offense both in passing and rushing.

Auburn’s quarterback Payton Thorne, a junior, has completed 62.6% of his passes, averaging 139.3 yards per game. He is also a valuable rusher for the team. Their leading rusher, however, is Jarquez Hunter, with 865 yards. Rivaldo Fairweather, a tight end, and Jay Fair, a wide receiver, are among Auburn’s key receivers.

While the Tigers’ defense was fairly solid this season, they have some key defensive opt-outs, including lineman Marcus Harris and cornerbacks Nehemiah Pritchett and D.J. James.

Auburn vs Maryland Betting Trends

In terms of betting stats, Auburn has compiled a 6-6-0 record against the spread this season, while Maryland has also won six games against the spread this season, failing to cover six times. Maryland has gone over in seven of 12 games this season, while five of Auburn’s 12 games have gone over the point total.

Although these teams haven’t clashed since the 80s, there are interesting situational trends at play in this game. Maryland is 1-7 SU in their last 8 games when playing as the underdog, while Auburn is 10-1 SU in their last 11 games when playing as the favorite.

Auburn vs Maryland Prediction

Tagovailoa has been the heartbeat of the Terrapins’ offense, so it’s hard to confidently back the underdog without their leader. Auburn’s rush defense is ranked only 89th in the country, but the Terrapins have barely managed over 100 rush yards per game.

Our best Music City Bowl bet is going to be the “under” on the Terrapins team total. The Tigers didn’t allow other SEC juggernauts (Alabama & Georgia) to get to 30 points against them and should shut down a Maryland offense missing its centerpiece.

We’d also lean Auburn against the spread if we were making an ATS prediction, as Thorne’s experience should prove valuable as he aims to audition for the 2024 starting role. But seven points is a bit much for an Auburn team that has been in several one-possession games this season.

Music City Bowl Pick:

Maryland Team Total Under 20.5 (-108 at FanDuel )

 

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