Capitals vs Lightning Prediction, Starting Goalies & Player Prop Picks

Nov 11, 2022; Washington, District of Columbia, USA; Washington Capitals left wing Alex Ovechkin (8) controls the puck as Tampa Bay Lightning defenseman Victor Hedman (77) defends during the third period at Capital One Arena. Mandatory Credit: Amber Searls-USA TODAY SportsThe Washington Capitals take on the Tampa Bay Lightning on Thursday, Feb. 22The Lightning are priced as home favorites over Alex Ovechkin and the visiting CapsRead below for Capitals vs Lightning prediction, starting goalies, and player props

The Washington Capitals, led by the red-hot Alex Ovechkin, will face the Tampa Bay Lightning at Amalie Arena on Thursday night. This game is one of 11 in the NHL on February 22.

Oddsmakers are setting the Bolts as heavy favorites over the Caps while offering the over/under for goals at 6.5. These two Eastern Conference rivals have played some high-scoring games over the years. Will the trend continue?

Here is our Capitals vs Lightning prediction as we analyze the matchup and determine the best bets to make.

Capitals vs Lightning Odds

Tampa Bay is a heavy -200 favorite in the Thursday NHL odds, implying they have a 67% chance to defeat the Capitals at home.

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Odds as of Feb. 21 at BetMGM Sportsbook. Sign up for BetMGM using the BetMGM welcome offer to wager on Caps vs Bolts.

Bolts Favored Over Caps

The Thursday NHL odds favor the Tampa Bay Lightning to defeat the Washington Capitals at Amalie Arena. The Bolts are riding a two-game losing streak but edged out the Caps in the first meetings of the season back in December.

Washington enters the game as road underdogs despite sporting a two-game winning streak. The Capitals handed the Devils a 6-2 loss on Tuesday despite being priced as significant underdogs. Per our NHL team trends, the Caps are 12-25 on the money line when underdogs.

RAISE YOUR HAND IF YOU HAD FUN 🙋‍♂️🙋‍♀️#CapsDevils | #ALLCAPS pic.twitter.com/yxj2YqmJaN

— x – Washington Capitals (@Capitals) February 21, 2024

The Lightning, meanwhile, are coming off a disappointing 4-2 loss to Ottawa, which followed a 9-2 blowout defeat at the hands of the Panthers. Jon Cooper’s team is seeking to close a four-game homestand (1-2-1) on a positive note.

The special teams battle is a primary reason why Tampa Bay is favored in this game. The Lightning owns the NHL’s best power play at 30.2% and will face a Washington penalty kill that only operates at 80% (13th).

Furthermore, the Bolts have taken three straight meetings with the Caps, outscoring Washington by an 11-5 margin in those games. The Capitals haven’t beaten Tampa Bay at Amalie Arena since 2019.

Projected NHL Starting Goalies

The starting goalies for Captials-Lightning have yet to be officially confirmed, but we can expect the Bolts to keep riding with former Vezina winner Andrei Vasilevskiy. Once considered the most outstanding goalie in the current NHL, “Vasi” has struggled this year with a .898 save percentage and 2.94 GAA.

Capitals vs Lightning NHL Projected Starting Goalies

Team	Goalie	Record	SV%	GAA
Washington Capitals	Charlie Lindgren	11-8-4	.915	2.62
Tampa Bay Lightning	Andrei Vasilevskiy	19-13-0	.898	2.94

Washington’s projected starting goalie (now confirmed) for Thursday is Charlie Lindgren, who is 11-8-4 this season with a .915 save percentage and 2.62 GAA. Neither goalie is a top contender in the Vezina odds this season, but Vasy is clearly the best netminder on either team.

2024 NHL Hart Trophy Odds TrackerRead More

Caps-Bolts Player Props

In the NHL player props market, Alex Ovechkin is an intriguing player to target on Thursday. Ovi has heated up following a slow start to the season, registering eight goals and five assists over the past nine games.

Seven goals in his last eight games for Ovi… 🔥 pic.twitter.com/Awehkum4j4

— NHL (@NHL) February 21, 2024

With the player props now open at top NHL betting apps, we’ll be looking to bet Ovi as an anytime goalscorer vs Tampa Bay at +155. Ovechkin knows how to beat his Russian counterpart Vasilevskiy, notching 50 goals against the Bolts over his career. The only team Ovi has scored more goals against is Winnipeg (53).

On the Lightning side, we are targeting Nikita Kucherov, a top favorite in the Hart Trophy odds. Our best Kucherov bet will be over 1.5 points at -120 odds. He’s put up 47 points in 27 home games this season and should feast against a Caps defense that is allowing over three goals per game.

Player Prop Picks:

Alex Ovechkin Anytime Goal (+155)Nikita Kucherov Over 1.5 Points (-120)

Capitals vs Lightning Prediction

These two teams have been relatively evenly matched at even strength over the past month, with the Bolts posting a 51.95 xGF% and the Capitals recording a 47.2 xGF%. Add in special teams, though, and the Bolts have a significant advantage (53.2 XGF% vs 48.2xGF%).

Even though Mikhail Sergachev is currently out of the lineup for Tampa Bay, we don’t mind laying the juice with the home team here. The Bolts are an impressive 51-12 in their last 63 home games vs a team with a losing road record. The Caps are 11-12-3 away from Capital One Arena this season.

Tampa Bay has lost two straight home games, but this is a chance for the team to right the ship against a team they’ve had success against. Considering how efficient the Bolts’ power play has been, plus home-ice advantage, the Lightning are the best bet in the Thursday NHL odds.

We don’t mind paying up in this spot, but you could also play the Bolts’ 60-minute line at -130 odds, as the team hasn’t required extra time in any of their past eight home wins.

Pick: Lightning ML (-200)

 

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