Chicago Bears vs LA Chargers Same-Game Parlay Picks for Sunday Night Football Week 8

November 13, 2022; Santa Clara, California, USA; Los Angeles Chargers linebacker Khalil Mack (52) during the second quarter against the San Francisco 49ers at Levi’s Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Kyle Terada-USA TODAY SportsThe Chicago Bears visit the Los Angeles Chargers on Sunday Night Football in Week 8Today’s CHI vs LAC same-game parlay hinges on rookie Tyson Bagent piling up some stats while playing from behindSee the best Bears vs Chargers SGP for Sunday Night Football on Oct. 29

Two struggling teams square off on Sunday Night Football in Week 8 as rookie Tyson Bagent and the Chicago Bears (2-5, 1-2 away, 2-4-1 ATS) visit Justin Herbert and the Los Angeles Chargers (2-4, 1-2 home, 2-4 ATS) at SoFI Stadium in Inglewood, California. Kickoff is scheduled for 8:20 pm ET. A de facto must-win game if either team has playoff aspirations, the Chargers are currently 8.5-point home favorites in the Week 8 NFL odds.

After hitting on a three-leg +442 SGP in Week 7, today’s Bears/Chargers same-game parlay is a more modest two-leg SGP, but still generates +431 odds with its two somewhat-correlated picks.

Bears vs Chargers Same-Game Parlay Picks

Today’s Bears/Chargers same-game parlay is a correlated play on Los Angeles jumping out to an early lead and Chicago being forced to pass more while playing from behind. It starts with the Chargers first-half spread and finishes with Bagent’s passing yards over

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The Week 8 NFL public betting splits, the Chargers are getting 60% of ATS handle while the public is pummeling over 45.5 to the tune of 95% of game-total money.

CHI vs LAC Same-Game Parlay Pick #1: Chargers First Half -6.5 (-110)

The first leg of this Sunday Night Football SGP is the Chargers to win the first half by at least a touchdown. Despite sitting two games under .500 on the year, the Chargers are middle-of-the-pack in overall DVOA (18th) and actually sit in the top ten in offensive DVOA (8th). Tonight they’ll have the luxury of facing a Chicago defense that sits 28th in defensive DVOA, 28th in scoring (26.9 PPG), 29th in passing yards (257.1 YPG), and last in sacks per game (1.67). While they held the Raiders to just 12 points at home last week, take that with a massive grain of salt, as Brian Hoyer and Aidan O’Connell were piloting the Las Vegas offense.

Herbert is likely to have a field day picking on a banged-up Chicago secondary from a serene pocket. Herbert hasn’t gone over 260 passing yards since Mike Williams went down with a knee injury in Week 3, but his Keenan Allen-led receiving corps is still plenty capable of piling up yardage against the Bears defense. Joshua Palmer, a 2021 third-round pick, had a career-high 133 yards in last week’s 31-17 loss to the Chiefs and is averaging 90 YPG since Williams went on the IR.

The Charger defense hasn’t held up its end of the bargain this season, sitting 25th in points allowed (25.8 PPG) but they still possess one of the league’s best pass rushes. Their 22 sacks are tied for seventh in the league and Joey Bosa, Khalil Mack, and company are able to generate excellent pressure without really blitzing. Expect an aggressive approach from defensive coordinator Derrick Ansley while the game is still close, leading to early struggles from Chicago’s rookie QB.

There is also anecdotal evidence to suggest that Mack, who is currently a top-ten favorite in the NFL Defensive Player of the Year odds, might flourish against a Chicago team he spent four seasons with from 2018-2021.

Just a morning reminder that Khalil Mack takes it personal w/ teams that traded him.

He had 6 sacks against the raiders… in one game 😬

pic.twitter.com/MdZoN87nMd

— TonyThePodBoss (@TonythePodBoss) October 24, 2023

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Bears vs Chargers SGP Pick #2:

The second leg of this Chicago/LA Chargers same-game parlay is rookie Tyson Bagent to go over 224.5 passing yards on the day. Bagent only had 162 yards in his first start last week against the Raiders, despite completing 21 passes. But if the Chargers are able to open a sizable lead in the first half, as I’m predicting, their defensive approach in the second half is likely to sag off some, and that will be welcome news for the hyper-athletic Bagent.

The Chargers are actually dead-last in the NFL in passing yards against and it’s not close. At 310.0 per game, they are surrendering 36.1 more passing yards per game than any other team, and at least 52.6 more than 30 of the other 31 teams in the league.  LAC’s 8.8 yards per pass allowed is also dead-last in the NFL.

Tyson Bagent bringing the SWAGGER for the Bears! pic.twitter.com/a57C33HkoC

— Harrison Graham (@HGrahamNFL) October 22, 2023

With DJ Moore on the outside, Bagent has a high-end receiving target, while tight end Cole Kmet has developed into a more-than-serviceable mid-range target. It’s no secret that Chicago would prefer to be a run-first team, especially with Bagent under center. But the game script is unlikely to allow Matt Eberflus to stay in his comfort zone.

The Week 8 NFL player props list Bagent’s over/under passing yards at just 199.5 (at the highest). But I expect Bagent to go well over two-bills once this game hits garbage time.

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