Duquesne vs Illinois Predictions, Picks & Player Props

Mar 21, 2024; Omaha, NE, USA; Illinois Fighting Illini forward Marcus Domask (3) reacts after his second half basket against the Morehead State Eagles during the first round of the NCAA Tournament at CHI Health Center Omaha. Mandatory Credit: Dylan Widger-USA TODAY SportsThe #11 Duquesne Dukes face the #3 Illinois Fighting Illini in the second round of the NCAA TournamentThe Illini are double-digit favorites over the DukesSee the Duquesne vs Illinois predictions, picks, and player props for Saturday’s game

Coming off a hard-fought upset of BYU as 9.5-point underdogs, the #11 Duquesne Dukes (25-11, 7-1 neutral, 19-16 ATS) are listed as double-digit underdogs in their second-round matchup with #3 Illinois (27-8, 6-0 neutral, 19-13-3 ATS) at CHI Health Center in Omaha on Saturday.

Tip-off is slated for 7:40 pm CT/8:40 pm ET in the penultimate NCAA Tournament game on March 23.

Duquesne vs Illinois Odds

In addition to being heavy 10-point ATS chalk, the Illini are also -550 on the moneyline. Duquesne, which has won nine straight games, is listed as a +410 underdog to advance. The winner will face either #2 Arizona or #7 Dayton in the Sweet 16 portion of the March Madness bracket.

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The spread from this game opened as just 9.5 on Thursday night but has been bet up to 10.5. The Illini continue to get the vast majority of moneyline action in the college basketball public betting splits (72% of moneyline handle) but the public is hammering the Dukes with the line at 10.5 (73% of ATS handle).

Illinois Distances Morehead State

Illinois was in a fierce first-half battle with #14 Morehead State in the first round (leading by just a point at the break) but a big second half allowed the Illini to run away with an 85-69 victory. Terrence Shannon Jr, who averages 23.1 PPG, had a game-high 26 points, his fifth straight game with at least 25. But it was Southern Illinois transfer Marcus Domask who stole the show by becoming just the tenth player to record a March Madness triple-double (12 points, 11 rebounds, 10 assists).

Illinois remains #10 at KenPom and  #12 at Haslametrics, both of which rate Illinois’ offense as the second-most-efficient in the nation. KenPom projects a ten-point win on Saturday (80-70), while Haslam has it at roughly nine (78.4-69.4).

Illinois hasn’t lose to a team outside the KenPom top 80 all season (13-0). Its worst loss came in a true-road game at Penn State (90-89), which sits 78th. Duquesne enters the second round rated 82nd.

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Duquesne’s Defense Comes up Huge Again

The slow-paced Dukes (252nd in tempo) held their final three A10 Tournament opponents to 60 points or under, including a 57-51 victory over VCU in the conference title game. Facing a BYU team with the 13th-most-efficient offense and the 87th-fastest tempo, Duquesne’s defense once again stole the show in a 71-67 victory.  That was just the sixth time this season the Cougars were held under 70 points, and two of the other games came against Houston (#1 in defensive efficiency) and Iowa State (#2).

On offense, leading scorer Dae Dae Grant had a team-high 19 points in the victory, helping the Dukes go 7-of-18 from three (38.9%). But Duquesne’s offense, which connects at just 34% from three for the season, still rates just 152nd in the nation in efficiency at KenPom and 146th at Haslam.

Duquesne’s win over BYU (17th) was just its second over a top-50 team. The Dukes also beat #30 Dayton (65-57) in the A10 Tournament. They were 0-3 prior, with two regular-season losses to the Flyers and a road loss at Nebraska (89-79).

DUQ vs ILL Player Props

The college basketball player props for Duquesne vs Illinois come from DraftKings Sportsbook on March 22. 

Playing a slow-paced, solid Duquesne defense, Shannon’s point total is at 23.5. As mentioned, he’s hit at least 25 in each of his past five games. Grant leads the Dukes players at 16.5, almost exactly his season average (16.7 PPG), while Duquesne’s leading rebounder, Fousseyni Drame, has the highest rebound total on the board at 7.5, despite averaging just 5.8 RPG for the year.

Duquesne vs Illinois Picks

The outcome is going to depend on which team can impose its will. If Illinois is able to get out and run – and speed-up Duquesne in the process – there is a good chance the Illini will win and cover. If Keith Dambrot’s Dukes can slow the pace of the game and force Illinois to play in the halfcourt, covering a double-digit spread is going to be difficult for an Illinois team with a leaky defense.

Duquesne has been able to impose its tempo on all of its recent opponents. They are well-coached and extremely disciplined, and I expect another solid gameplan from Dambrot against Illinois.

DUQ vs ILL prediction: Duquesne +10.5 (-110)

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